Altcoin Season Logic - (English version at end) | how to check Altcoin season ? Checklist is here. But first understand the market .
Market Down Kyu Gaya? Trump Ne Tabahi Macha Di!
Bhai scene samajh, crypto market laton ke bhoot wali maar kha raha hai aur iska bada reason Trump ki naye trade policies aur global economy ka stress hai. Sun yaar, asaan lafzon mein samjhata hoon:
1. Trump Ne Tariffs Maar Diye, Economy Ka Dahi Ban Gaya
• Feb 2, 2025 ko Trump ne Mexico aur Canada pe 25% aur China pe 10% tax laga diya.
• Ab bhai, jab cheezein mehngi ho jati hain, log panic mein bechna shuru kar dete hain.
• Crypto market bhi stock market ke saath ghasit gaya kyunki log safe assets (gold, dollar) ki taraf bhaag rahe hain.
2. Bitcoin (BTC) Aur Ethereum (ETH) Ne Crash Maar Diya
• BTC ne $106K se $91K tak lassi pi li, mast dump aaya.
• ETH $3.5K se $2.1K tak pichak gaya, altcoins ka haal aur bura hai.
• Jab Bitcoin girta hai, altcoins aur zyada marte hain, ye history hai bhai!
3. Altcoins Ka Scene Tyt Kyu Nahi Horaha?
• Bitcoin jab bull run karta hai, tabhi altcoins ka bhi baap banta hai.
• Abhi log panic mode me hain, liquidity crash chal raha hai, to altcoins mein entry lene wale bhi phas gaye.
Ab Altcoin Season Kab Aayega?
Bhai har bull run ke baad ek altcoin season aata hi aata hai, magar kab aayega? Ye billion dollar ka sawal hai. Chalo yaar timeline set karte hain:
1. Bitcoin Halving Ka Asar (April 2024)
• Bitcoin har halving ke 12-18 mahine baad peak karta hai.
• 2016 Halving → 2017 BTC Boom → 2018 Altcoin Season
• 2020 Halving → 2021 BTC Peak → 2021 Altcoin Boom
• 2024 Halving → 2025 BTC Rally → Expected Altcoin Pump
2. Bitcoin Dominance Girne Ka Wait (BTCD)
• Bitcoin ka market control (dominance) abhi 55-57% hai.
• Jab bhi BTC dominance 50% ke neeche girta hai, tab altcoins ka waqt aata hai.
• Estimate: April–June 2025 tak BTCD 50% ke neeche jayega, fir altcoin season on hoga.
3. Market Sentiment Shift Aur Retail Ki Entry
• BTC stable hoga, tabhi log altcoins me ghusenge.
• Pehle meme coins pump honge (March–May 2025) kyunki retail ka interest wahi hota hai.
• Uske baad real altcoins jaise DeFi, AI aur Layer 2 projects phodenge (June–September 2025).
4. Institutional Investment Aur Regulations
• Trump crypto-friendly hai, abhi institutions wait kar rahe hain ke legal clarity aaye.
• April–June 2025 ke beech regulations clear honge, tab big investors altcoins kharidna shuru karenge.
Altcoin Season Fail Bhi Ho Sakta Hai?
Bhai har cheez 100% confirm nahi hoti, agar ye events ho gaye to altseason flop bhi ho sakti hai:
1. Agar Trump aur China ki larai aur badhti hai, to investors panic mode me aake cash pe shift ho sakte hain.
2. Bitcoin dominance wapas 60% ke upar chala gaya, to altcoins ko dubara maar padegi.
3. Agar Binance ya Coinbase pe SEC ka danda gira, to crypto market fir se down ho sakta hai.
4. India ya China ne altcoins pe bans maar diye, to liquidity mar jaye gi aur altseason slow ho jayega.
Altcoin Season Check Karne Ka Full Checklist – Roman Urdu Version (For Beginners)
Bhai, agar tu ek aam aadmi hai aur crypto ka zero idea hai, par samajhna chahta hai ke Altcoin Season kab aayega, to yeh step-by-step guide tere liye hai. Isme TradingView, Bitcoin Dominance, Market Cap, aur Fear & Greed Index ko asaan lafzon mein samjhaya gaya hai. Pakistan ki local misaalon ke saath!
1. Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) Check Karna – Altcoin Season Ka Sabse Bara Signal
Samajhne ki baat:
Bitcoin crypto ka king hai. Jab bhi log sirf Bitcoin le rahe hote hain, altcoins weak hote hain. Par jab log Bitcoin se paisa nikal ke altcoins me dalte hain, tab altcoins pump karte hain.
Kaise Check Karein?
1. Apne Mobile ya Laptop pe “TradingView.com” Open Karo
2. Search Bar Me Likho: “BTC.D” (Ye Bitcoin Dominance Ka Chart Hai)
3. Chart Ko Open Karo Aur 1-Month Ya 1-Week Timeframe Pe Dekho
Samajhne Ki Baat - Local Example:
Samajh, BTC.D ka chart jaise ek “Gali Ka Dada” hai.
• Agar ye 60% se upar hai, iska matlab hai dada (Bitcoin) sab pe hukumat kar raha hai, aur chhote altcoins (gali ke bachay) dar ke chup hain.
• Agar BTC.D 50% se neeche girta hai, iska matlab hai dada ka pressure kam ho raha hai, aur chhote altcoins bhi badmashi karne lag rahe hain (altcoins pump hona start karte hain).
Checklist:
✅ BTC.D 50% se neeche gir raha ho → Altcoin Season ka signal
❌ BTC.D 60% se upar ho → Altcoins mar rahe hain, wait karo
2. Total Altcoin Market Cap (TOTAL2) Check Karna
Samajhne ki baat:
Total2 ka matlab hai Altcoins ka total market cap (jitna paisa sirf altcoins me laga hua hai).
• Agar TOTAL2 ka chart upar ja raha hai, iska matlab hai altcoins pump hone wale hain.
• Agar TOTAL2 neeche ja raha hai, to altcoins weak hain.
Kaise Check Karein?
1. TradingView kholo
2. Search Bar Me Likho: “TOTAL2”
3. Chart Open Karo Aur 1-Week Timeframe Pe Dekho
Local Example - Mandi Ka Scene:
Samajh yaar, TOTAL2 ek “Sabzi Mandi” ka chart hai.
• Agar log zyada sabziyan kharid rahe hain (market cap upar ja raha hai), to bazar garam hai (altcoins pump ho rahe hain).
• Agar log sabzi nahi kharid rahe (market cap neeche ja raha hai), to bazar thanda hai (altcoins weak hain).
Checklist:
✅ TOTAL2 upar ja raha ho aur BTC stable ho → Altcoins ke liye bullish signal
❌ TOTAL2 neeche gir raha ho → Market crash ka chance
3. Bitcoin Price Stable Hai Ya Pump Ho Raha Hai?
Samajhne ki baat:
Bitcoin ka price kaafi matter karta hai.
• Agar Bitcoin ek range me stable hai (e.g. $90K – $95K ke beech), to altcoins ka time aane wala hai.
• Agar Bitcoin ek dum pump kar raha hai (e.g. $95K se $105K daily), to sab log BTC me ghus jayenge aur altcoins marenge.
Kaise Check Karein?
1. TradingView kholo
2. Search Bar Me Likho: “BTC/USD”
3. Chart Dekho Ki Bitcoin Stable Hai Ya Fast Move Kar Raha Hai
Local Example - Cricket Match Ka Scene:
Samajh, BTC ek “Babar Azam” hai aur altcoins “Fakhar Zaman, Rizwan aur Saim Ayub” hain.
• Agar Babar (BTC) mast steady batting kar raha hai (price stable hai), to Fakhar aur Rizwan (altcoins) bhi acche shorts maarenge (pump karenge).
• Agar Babar (BTC) akelay 6-6 maar raha hai (BTC pump kar raha hai), to koi doosra player kaam nahi karega (altcoins girenge).
Checklist:
✅ BTC price stable hai (range bound) → Altcoins ka chance hai
❌ BTC price aggressively pump kar raha hai → Altcoins weak rahenge
4. Fear & Greed Index Check Karna
Samajhne ki baat:
Fear & Greed Index batata hai log market me panic me hain ya greed me.
Kaise Check Karein?
1. Google Pe Search Karo: “Crypto Fear & Greed Index”
2. Index Ki Value Dekho:
• 0-30 (Extreme Fear) = Market dar gaya hai, buying ka time hai
• 70-100 (Extreme Greed) = Market overvalued hai, profit lene ka time hai
Local Example - Mehngai Aur Discount Ka Scene:
• Agar Daraz aur shopping malls pe sale lagi ho (Fear Mode - Market Cheap Hai), to samajh lo ye buying ka waqt hai.
• Agar sab kuch mehnga ho gaya hai (Greed Mode - Market Peak Pe Hai), to profit lena sahi hai.
Checklist:
✅ Fear Index 30-50 ke beech hai → Market me entry ka time hai
❌ Fear Index 70-100 ke upar hai → Market expensive hai, sell karne ka time
5. Meme Coins Ka Pump Check Karna
Samajhne ki baat:
History batati hai altseason ke pehle Meme Coins pump karte hain.
• Pehle DOGE, SHIBA, FLOKI jese coins pump karte hain, fir baaki altcoins ka number aata hai.
Kaise Check Karein?
1. CoinMarketCap ya CoinGecko pe jao
2. Trending Coins dekho, agar sab meme coins hain, to samajh lo altcoin season close hai.
Local Example - Pakistan Ki Politics:
Samajh yaar, meme coins bilkul jaise Pakistani siyasatdan hain.
• Election se pehle sab chor politician ads aur promises shuru kar dete hain (meme coins ka hype).
• Fir asli kaam wale log (real altcoins) baad me aate hain.
Checklist:
✅ Meme coins trending me hain → Altseason near hai
❌ Sirf major coins (BTC/ETH) chal rahe hain → Abhi altseason nahi
Final Takeaway - Altseason Ke Liye Aam Aadmi Ka Formula
• BTC Dominance 50% se neeche ho → Altcoins chalne lagenge
• Altcoin Market Cap (TOTAL2) upar ja raha ho → Confirmed rally
• BTC stable ho, zyada pump ya crash na kar raha ho → Altcoins perform karenge
• Fear & Greed Index neutral ho (30-50) → Safe time for altcoins
• Meme coins pump kar rahe ho → Altseason ke signals on hain
Bhai, ye steps follow kar aur altcoin season ke signals ko samajhne ki practice kar. Samajhdar trader ban, sirf FOMO me mat ghus.
English Version
Why Did the Market Crash? Trump’s Trade War Impact
The crypto market is in a downtrend, and the biggest reason is Trump’s new trade policies and global economic uncertainty. Let’s break it down:
1. Trump’s Tariffs Shook the Economy
• On February 2, 2025, Trump imposed a 25% tax on Mexico & Canada and 10% on China.
• This led to panic selling as goods became expensive, and investors ran towards safe assets like gold and USD.
• The crypto market took a hit, following the stock market crash.
2. Bitcoin & Ethereum Crashed Hard
• Bitcoin dropped from $106K to $91K, a major decline.
• Ethereum fell from $3.5K to $2.1K, with altcoins suffering even worse.
• Historically, when Bitcoin crashes, altcoins experience even greater losses.
3. Why Aren’t Altcoins Pumping Yet?
• Altcoins only pump when Bitcoin is strong or consolidating.
• Right now, liquidity is low, and people are scared to invest heavily.
When Will Altcoin Season Start?
Every bull run is followed by an altcoin season, but when exactly? Here’s the most logical timeline:
1. Bitcoin Halving Impact (April 2024)
• Historically, Bitcoin halvings trigger bull runs 12-18 months later.
• Past trends:
• 2016 Halving → 2017 BTC Boom → 2018 Altcoin Season
• 2020 Halving → 2021 BTC Peak → 2021 Altcoin Boom
• 2024 Halving → 2025 BTC Rally → Expected Altcoin Surge
2. Bitcoin Dominance Decline (BTCD)
• Bitcoin dominance (currently 55-57%) needs to fall below 50% for altcoins to shine.
• Projections suggest BTCD will drop below 50% by April–June 2025, signaling altcoin season.
3. Market Sentiment Shift & Retail FOMO
• Once Bitcoin stabilizes, investors start shifting to altcoins.
• Meme coins will pump first (March–May 2025), followed by DeFi, AI, and Layer 2 altcoins (June–September 2025).
4. Institutional Investment & Regulatory Clarity
• Trump is pro-crypto, but institutions are waiting for legal clarity.
• By April–June 2025, we expect clearer regulations, leading to big investors entering the altcoin market.
Can Altcoin Season Fail?
Not everything is guaranteed. Here’s how altseason could fail or be delayed:
1. If Trump’s trade war escalates, investors will avoid risk assets.
2. If Bitcoin dominance jumps back above 60%, altcoins will struggle.
3. If Binance or Coinbase face SEC lawsuits, the market could crash again.
4. If major countries ban altcoins, liquidity will dry up, slowing down altseason.
Final Takeaway
• Altcoin season is expected between June–September 2025.
• Meme coins will pump first, followed by major altcoins.
• Macroeconomic events can delay or weaken the cycle.
• Smart investing means taking profits and not getting emotionally attached.
Crypto rewards the patient, but the market punishes the greedy. Play smart!
How to Check for Altcoin Season – A Beginner’s Guide (Step-by-Step Checklist)
Bro ), if you’re a complete beginner and want to understand how to detect altcoin season, this guide is for you! I’ll explain TradingView, Bitcoin Dominance, Market Cap, Fear & Greed Index, and other key signals in a simple way—with local Pakistani examples so you can relate.
1. Check Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) – The Biggest Altcoin Season Indicator
What is Bitcoin Dominance?
Bitcoin is the king of the crypto market.
• When people invest mostly in Bitcoin, altcoins stay weak.
• When people move money from Bitcoin to altcoins, altcoins start pumping.
How to Check BTCD?
1. Open “TradingView.com” on your Mobile or Laptop
2. In the search bar, type: “BTC.D” (this is the Bitcoin Dominance Chart)
3. Open the chart and view it on a 1-Week or 1-Month timeframe
How to Interpret It? (Pakistani Example)
Think of BTC.D as the “Boss of the Street” (Gali Ka Dada).
• If BTCD is above 60%, the boss (Bitcoin) controls everything, and the small guys (altcoins) are weak.
• If BTCD falls below 50%, altcoins get stronger and start fighting back (altseason starts).
Checklist:
✅ If BTC.D is dropping below 50% → Altcoin Season is starting
❌ If BTC.D is above 60% → Altcoins are weak, wait!
2. Check Total Altcoin Market Cap (TOTAL2) – How Much Money is in Altcoins?
What is TOTAL2?
TOTAL2 = The total value of all altcoins combined (excluding Bitcoin).
• If TOTAL2 is increasing → More money is flowing into altcoins → Altcoins are preparing for a bull run.
• If TOTAL2 is decreasing → People are selling altcoins → Altcoins are weak.
How to Check TOTAL2?
1. Go to TradingView
2. Type in the search bar: “TOTAL2”
3. Check the chart on a 1-Week timeframe
How to Understand? (Local Example – Vegetable Market Scene)
Think of TOTAL2 as a “Vegetable Market” (Sabzi Mandi).
• If more people are buying vegetables (market cap is increasing), prices rise (altcoins pump).
• If no one is buying (market cap is dropping), prices go down (altcoins crash).
Checklist:
✅ If TOTAL2 is rising and Bitcoin is stable → Altcoins are getting stronger
❌ If TOTAL2 is falling → Altcoins are still weak, wait!
3. Check if Bitcoin’s Price is Stable or Pumping
Why Does Bitcoin Price Matter?
• If Bitcoin is stable (e.g., between $90K–$95K), altcoins can start pumping.
• If Bitcoin is pumping too fast (e.g., from $95K to $105K in a day), people only focus on BTC, and altcoins don’t perform well.
How to Check Bitcoin Price?
1. Go to TradingView
2. Type in the search bar: “BTC/USD”
3. See if Bitcoin is moving too fast or staying stable
How to Understand? (Pakistani Cricket Example)
Think of Bitcoin as Babar Azam and Altcoins as Fakhar Zaman, Rizwan, and Saim Ayub.
• If Babar is playing steadily (Bitcoin is stable), then other players also get a chance to hit (altcoins pump).
• If Babar is hitting sixes non-stop (Bitcoin is pumping too fast), then no one else gets to bat (altcoins stay weak).
Checklist:
✅ If Bitcoin is stable → Altcoins will start moving
❌ If Bitcoin is aggressively pumping → Altcoins will remain weak
4. Check the Fear & Greed Index – Is the Market in Panic or Greed Mode?
What is the Fear & Greed Index?
This index shows whether people are scared or greedy in the market.
How to Check Fear & Greed Index?
1. Go to Google and search: “Crypto Fear & Greed Index”
2. Check the value:
• 0-30 (Extreme Fear) = Market is panicking, good buying opportunity.
• 70-100 (Extreme Greed) = Market is overvalued, good time to sell.
How to Understand? (Local Example – Daraz Sales & Inflation Scene)
• If Daraz or shopping malls have a big sale (Fear Mode - Market is cheap), this is the best time to buy.
• If everything is overpriced (Greed Mode - Market is expensive), it’s time to sell and take profits.
Checklist:
✅ If Fear Index is 30-50 → Market is neutral, good time for altcoins
❌ If Fear Index is above 70 → Market is overhyped, take profits
5. Check if Meme Coins Are Pumping – The First Signal of Altseason
Why Do Meme Coins Matter?
• Before altseason starts, meme coins like DOGE, SHIBA, and FLOKI usually pump first.
• If memecoins are trending, it’s a sign that altcoin season is near.
How to Check Meme Coin Trend?
1. Go to CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko
2. Check trending coins
3. If meme coins are dominating, altseason is close.
How to Understand? (Pakistani Politics Example)
• Meme coins are like Pakistani politicians before elections—they start making a lot of noise before the real action happens.
• Before a real altcoin bull run, meme coins create hype in the market.
Checklist:
✅ If meme coins are trending → Altcoin season is near
❌ If only Bitcoin and Ethereum are moving → Altcoin season is not here yet
Final Summary – A Simple Altcoin Season Formula for Beginners
• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) should fall below 50% → Altcoins will start moving
• Altcoin Market Cap (TOTAL2) should be increasing → More money in altcoins
• Bitcoin should be stable, not aggressively pumping → Gives altcoins room to grow
• Fear & Greed Index should be neutral (30-50) → Not too much panic or greed
• Meme coins should be pumping → The first sign of altseason starting
Final Advice – Be a Smart Trader, Not a FOMO Buyer!
Altcoin season is not a random event—it follows clear patterns.
• Use TradingView, track Bitcoin dominance, and watch market trends.
• Don’t blindly buy altcoins just because someone said “ALT SEASON IS COMING!”
• Have patience and enter the market at the right time.
Crypto rewards those who plan, and punishes those who chase hype. Be smart!